Weaponised Tariffs and Global Realignments 

The renewed U.S. embrace of tariffs as political leverage is reshaping the global trade landscape. Far from a narrow U.S.–China dispute, tariff weaponisation under the Trump Administration (and its continuities under Biden) has created systemic shockwaves for the Global South. Framed as economic correction, these policies reinforce asymmetrical dependencies, exposing the limits of sovereignty for countries tied into global value chains. 

Trade has become a geopolitical tool, used to reward alignment and punish deviation. Yet for many developing countries, whose economies depend on single-product exports or narrow bilateral markets, the cost of this coercion is structural and enduring. 

Soybeans and Shifting Agricultural Dependence 

The case of soybeans during the U.S.–China trade war exemplifies how Global South countries become collateral damage, or accidental beneficiaries, in tariff wars between powers. 

In 2018, China retaliated Sagainst U.S. tariffs by imposing duties on American soybeans, redirecting demand to Brazil, where over 80% of soybean exports went to China. This shift deepened Brazil’s dependency and accelerated deforestation in the Amazon. When China later resumed large-scale soybean imports from the U.S. under the 2020 “Phase One” deal, Brazilian producers were left exposed. 

Meanwhile, Argentina, another key soybean exporter, was hit with steel and aluminium tariffs by the U.S., justified on vague national security grounds. In 2019, both Brazil and Argentina saw new U.S. tariffs imposed in response to what Trump called “unfair currency devaluations”, showcasing how economic pain was externalised to Global South producers during American electoral cycles. 

Soybean monoculture in Brazil with pesticide spraying near the Amazon rainforest. Image credit: FR.Agro/Shutterstock.com. 

Rare Earths, Minerals, and the New Extractivism 

Rare earth elements, crucial for green technologies, defence, and digital infrastructure, have become central in the U.S.–China decoupling. In response to Chinese export restrictions, the U.S. has sought alternative supplies from Africa and Latin America. Countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe, which hold vast reserves of cobalt and lithium, are now targets of a new resource race. 

This has revived an extractive model reminiscent of colonial-era resource plunder. Infrastructure investments and corridor developments, such as the U.S.-backed Lobito Corridor in southern Africa, aim to facilitate rapid export of unprocessed minerals to American or European markets. While these investments are framed as “development”, they risk entrenching a logistics model where value is captured offshore, leaving producer countries with degraded environments, low fiscal returns, and reduced policy space. 

Some states are pushing back. Zimbabwe banned raw lithium exports in 2022 and has since tightened restrictions on semi-processed ores. Indonesia has imposed similar bans on nickel. These are early signals of strategic assertion, attempts to retain more value domestically, even if they risk retaliation or legal disputes. 

Tariff Blackmail: Southeast Asia and the “Reciprocal Trade” Doctrine 

In 2025, Trump’s return to office revived his policy of imposing “reciprocal tariffs” on countries running trade surpluses with the U.S.; notably, Southeast Asian economies such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, were suddenly targeted with sweeping tariffs of up to 46%. These were not responses to unfair trade practices, but blunt instruments aimed at correcting imbalances. 

In response, Thailand quickly offered to import more U.S. goods, from LNG to agricultural produce, in a bid to placate Washington and avoid further duties. Indonesia similarly adjusted its procurement preferences to favour U.S. suppliers. These manoeuvres reveal the deeper issue: trade asymmetry isn’t just about flows of goods; it’s about flows of power. 

Global South countries, facing U.S. market dependence, often concede policy adjustments that violate their own development priorities, be it sacrificing domestic suppliers, accepting less favourable investment terms, or shelving infant-industry protections. 

Shrinking Policy Space and Multilateral Fragility 

The multilateral system, long promoted as a guardian of fairness, has failed to restrain unilateral tariff action. The World Trade Organisation’s dispute resolution system remains paralysed, largely due to U.S. obstruction. In its absence, power-based deals have replaced rule-based arbitration. Developing countries, already constrained by structural adjustment legacies and free-trade agreements, now confront a world where the rules are enforced only when convenient for the powerful. 

At the same time, the fiscal impacts of tariff shocks are tangible. For economies reliant on commodity exports, tariff barriers in key markets lead to revenue collapses, budget deficits, and austerity. Countries without strong industrial bases or diversified partners struggle to recover. The result: a reproduction of dependency, not a break from it. 

Reclaiming Sovereignty: Three Strategic Imperatives 

1. Strategic Autonomy. Global South countries must diversify export markets, reduce reliance on single buyers, and build domestic capacities in energy, food, and technology. Policies like resource beneficiation (e.g., lithium processing in-country) or selective import substitution should be protected within revised trade frameworks. 

2. Regional Cooperation: Reclaiming Sovereignty through Collective Strength 

Efforts to deepen regional trade integration, such as AfCFTA and ASEAN, offer viable alternatives to asymmetric bilateral dependencies. Through coordinated industrial policy, regulatory harmonisation, and shared infrastructure, regional blocs can enhance bargaining power and economic resilience. 

In Africa, intra-regional trade under AfCFTA reached US $192 billion in 2023, rising to 15% of total trade, up from 13.6% in 2022. This 7.2% annual growth reflects early gains from mechanisms like PAPSS and tariff alignment (Afreximbank, 2024; PACCI, 2024). 

ASEAN has achieved even deeper integration. In 2023, intra-ASEAN trade accounted for 24% of the bloc’s total trade, totalling US $850 billion, despite persistent non-tariff barriers (The Edge Malaysia, 2024; APEC, 2024).  

These examples show that regional cooperation is not peripheral but central to economic sovereignty. 

Leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) pose for a family photo during the ASEAN Summit held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on 26 May 2025. Photo by Chen Yue / China News Service / VCG via Getty Images.  

3. Reforming Multilateralism. A new generation of trade rules must guarantee special and differential treatment, protect policy space, and discipline the weaponisation of tariffs. Developing countries should lead in redesigning trade institutions that uphold equity over exceptionalism. 

Conclusion: Toward a Post-Dependency Trade Order 

Tariffs have become 21st-century tools of coercion. Whether disguised as reciprocity or framed as national security, they systematically redirect economic burdens onto weaker states. In doing so, they expose the fragility of a trade system built on promises of openness but maintained through asymmetry. 

The Global South cannot afford to be a passive node in this evolving order. Trade sovereignty must be redefined, not as isolation, but as the capacity to chart independent developmental paths, forge resilient regional partnerships, and demand a fair seat at the multilateral table. 

The time to act is now. Tariff wars will not vanish, but they can be repurposed as catalysts for solidarity, strategy, and sovereignty. 

Source List: 

African Export-Import Bank. (2024). African Trade Report 2024: Leveraging AfCFTA to Boost Intra-African Trade. 

Pan African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PACCI). (2024). Intra-African Trade Up 7.2% in 2023. Retrieved from https://www.pacci.org/ 

APEC. (2024). SOM2 Trade and Investment Report. Retrieved from https://mddb.apec.org/Documents/2024/SOM/SOM2/24_som2_003_r.pdf 

The Edge Malaysia. (2024). ASEAN Intra-Trade Rebounds to $850 Billion. Retrieved from https://www.theedgemalaysia.com/